Is this the new normal? I sure hope not but one thing for sure is we've not found our footing yet. It is the end of August, 2017 and our neighborhood market is anything but predictable. Right now there are 33 homes available. Out of those 33 homes - 21 are under 3000 sq. ft. and 7 of those are patio homes. Homes over 3000 sq. ft. are usually estate homes that offer larger lots and higher prices. Since our community is more than 20 years old there is great variety in overall condition. That my dear, is when experience becomes valuable.
There are four homes under contract and range in prices of 339,000-700,000. Oddly enough one of those properties was on the market for over a year while the lowest and highest priced both had 43 days on the market.
Twenty one homes have sold thus far this calendar year with prices ranging between 363,000 - 879,000. Seven of those were patio homes. By this time last calendar year 28 homes had sold and 6 of those were patio homes.
Prior to the downturn beginning late 2006 (in our neighborhood) the market for patio homes was robust, especially during the months of October-May (otherwise known as the snowbird season). Since then there hasn't been a statistical normal. God knows, it isn't from lack of wishing it so!
I looked back on the months of October-May for the last few years and found the following:
10/1/2015 - 5/30/2016 10/1/2016 - 5/30/2017
24 homes sold and 8 were patio homes 8 homes sold and 3 were patio homes
History proves that inventory drives prices. My personal rule of thumb for Marsh Creek is an inventory of 30 homes available with a wide variety in pricing is healthy. Anything over drives the price down and anything under drives the price up. Until recently we were hovering around 37 homes available. During the height of the downturn the maximum available for sale were 40.
There are a number of factors in play right now:
Geo-political unrest
U.S. Politics in flux
Angst on display across the nation
Traditional break from the hectic summer season. People tend to take that break and by October business is usually a little stronger.
Unfortunately my crystal ball hasn't worked well since 2006. Maybe I should trade it in but for now I'll just say, stay tuned to future updates. We continue to sell more listings in Marsh Creek than anyone else and are grateful for the confidence placed in our experience and production.
